Survival, Legal Fight, Punjab Battle: What's Next for AAP After MP Exodus

Sources note that among the seven MPs, four were primarily businessmen or public figures, with only three being core political leaders. Harbhajan Singh's long-term commitment was questioned, while Sandeep Pathak's influence over organisational matters had declined. Chadha and Pathak had been key in distributing Punjab Assembly election tickets, raising concerns about the depth of support beyond the defectors. Chadha’s claim of being in contact with 50 MLAs has heightened concerns within the party.

Experts within the party say Punjab's election next year will largely determine AAP's momentum. Balbir Singh, a Punjab minister, accuses the defectors of betraying the public and asserts that Punjab's AAP MLAs remain united and that the Bhagwant Mann government is functioning. A leadership source suggests timing the defections nine months before Punjab's elections could still be manageable for the party.

Following the developments in Delhi and Punjab, AAP looks to Gujarat as a future growth area, as evidenced by Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal's frequent visits to the state and public messaging.

The BJP has previously managed to fracture AAP's ranks in Gujarat. Although AAP won a by-election later, several of its candidates withdrew during the municipal elections, signaling continued internal and electoral volatility in the state.

In Delhi, MLA Aaley Iqbal has shown signs of dissent: during a recent Assembly session, the party boycotted proceedings, but Iqbal attended and spoke, indicating internal strains within the capital unit.

AAP states it will seek the disqualification of the seven MPs and will pursue legal action if there is any delay. Reports indicate the Rajya Sabha chairman is likely to accept the merger request, which would push the party toward legal recourse as its next step.

Raghav Chadha and six other AAP MPs announce they will merge with the BJP. The move comprises two-thirds of AAP's 10 Rajya Sabha MPs, reducing the party's total parliamentary strength from 13 to six, with three MPs in the Lok Sabha still in place.