Winners, losers and a PM on the brink - what to expect in next week's elections

Within Labour, there are competing opinions on Keir Starmer’s future: some ministers call a terminal situation, while others caution against doomscrolling and advocate focusing on leadership beyond immediate speculation.

Labour faces a grim outlook: stark conditions in Wales described as dark and desperate, while England shows a gloomy mood over migration, cost of living, and Starmer's leadership. The party aims to hold around 2,500 English council seats but fears substantial losses, with conflicting views among ministers on whether Starmer should remain post-election.

The Conservative Party expects a brutal night with hundreds of lost seats but does not sense an imminent end for leader Kemi Badenoch. Some sources recall a more uncertain leadership position a year ago, now felt more stable.

The Lib Dems focus on local campaigns, hoping for around 150 additional council seats and the possibility of becoming the party with the most seats in England. The party emphasizes targeted, local campaigning over national momentum.

There are concerns within Green circles that Zack Polanski's blunt approach could alienate traditional Green voters even as it attracts new ones, in the wake of the attack in Golders Green.

The Greens are positioned for a national test with an anticipated rise in seats, potentially at least 500. They may win council seats in London and could place Green mayors in areas such as east London’s Hackney, while aiming to erode Labour support in the capital.

The article predicts Reform will win the most seats in England and argue that they have replaced the Conservatives as the natural party of the right and Labour's main opposition across Britain, as they expand into Scotland and Wales.

Reform has been leading UK-wide polls for more than a year. Internal sources suggest they should gain at least four figures in local council seats, likely surpassing 1,000 in England, with some projections as high as 1,500 of about 5,000 contested seats. The party is also aiming to be first or second in Scotland and Wales.

The piece contemplates the possibility of a coup against Starmer in the week following the article's publication, acknowledging uncertainty about whether such a move will occur.

The article describes Labour MPs and ministers as frustrated by leadership speculation, with Starmer's allies stating he will not concede to deals or timetables and will focus on governing. It notes a warning aimed at Angela Rayner that a public exit date would undermine a leader's power, and emphasizes resistance to notions of any time limit on Starmer's tenure.