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UAE to leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, testing cartel influence
The UAE announced it will exit OPEC on May 1, 2026, raising questions about the group’s future influence. The move follows Gulf tensions and a war-driven disruption of regional energy exports, with prices reacting only modestly so far.
Why It Matters
The UAE’s departure challenges OPEC’s unity and pricing power, and could alter Gulf energy diplomacy and broader oil-market dynamics.
Timeline
5 Events
OPEC meets as UAE departure announced
April 29, 2026
OPEC meets on April 29 to discuss the UAE’s departure; the UAE announced it will leave OPEC on May 1, 2026, signaling a potential shift in the cartel’s dynamics.
Brent rises above $110/bbl
April 28, 2026
Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel for the first time since Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the Gulf, three weeks earlier; the UAE departure had not yet moved prices.
US considers financial aid to UAE
April 22, 2026
Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said America was considering offering financial aid to support the UAE’s economy.
UAE oil production in February 2026
February 2026
The UAE produced about 3.6 million barrels per day in February 2026, with around 600,000 b/d of spare capacity before the conflict intensified.
Qatar leaves OPEC (2019)
2019
Qatar took its leave from OPEC in 2019, illustrating that member departures have occurred before and can be absorbed by the cartel.