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Polymarket bets worth Rs 247 crore on Indian assembly election outcomes as results loom
The article reports a large pool of bets on Polymarket about Indian state elections, with Tamil Nadu attracting the largest share. It explains state-by-state odds, payout potential, and how prediction markets operate, along with regulatory notes for India.
Why It Matters
Shows how crowd-based prediction markets can generate significant financial incentives and shed light on public perceptions of electoral outcomes, while highlighting regulatory tensions.
Timeline
8 Events
Predictions markets: examples, risks, and historical caveats
May 2, 2026
The article notes that prediction markets have been used for business planning and have misread events in the past (e.g., Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in 2016). It also mentions other platforms and uses, including a US store chain that used market insights for decision-making.
Notable all-time winner on Polymarket
May 2, 2026
The biggest all-time winner on Polymarket earned about $22 million across 18 correct predictions, including an $8.3 million payoff from a bet on Trump becoming US president.
Regulatory context for prediction markets in India
May 2, 2026
Indian law does not allow prediction markets; Polymarket's decentralised, crypto-based model may enable Indian users to participate via VPN, though such activity sits in a regulatory gray area.
Upcoming results date and reporting context
May 2, 2026
Election results are scheduled to be declared on Monday, May 4, 2026. The article notes this timing while reporting on the current bets and payouts.
How Polymarket works (yes/no prediction markets)
May 2, 2026
Polymarket operates as a market for yes/no predictions where each share is priced between $0 and $1 to reflect the probability of an outcome. Users buy and sell shares; at the deadline, correct predictions pay $1 per share, with profits depending on the entry price.
Breakdown of predicted money by state
May 2, 2026
Tamil Nadu bets exceed $20 million; West Bengal over $5 million; Kerala about $400,000; Assam about $180,000; Puducherry about $19,000.
State odds overview as of May 2, 2026
May 2, 2026
Tamil Nadu: DMK around 88% odds; West Bengal: Trinamool around 53%; Kerala: Congress around 75%; Assam: BJP around 98%; Puducherry: NDA-led AINRC around 86%.
Polymarket bets totaling about Rs 247 crore expected to be paid out
May 2, 2026
As results approach, Polymarket is reporting a payout of at least $26 million (about Rs 247 crore) to those who predicted winners correctly. Bets opened in December last year and have grown as results near; Tamil Nadu accounts for the largest pool with more than $20 million, while other states have smaller but notable pools.