BackWORLD
Ocean temperatures soar as El Niño nears; India may witness harsher summer, weaker monsoon
New data show April 2026 tied for the second-warmest April in global sea surface temperatures, with broad ocean areas recording record warmth. Forecasts indicate El Niño could develop between May and July 2026, potentially intensifying heat and weakening monsoon patterns, including in India.
Why It Matters
Sustained ocean warming and the possible emergence of a strong El Niño can influence global weather patterns, heat extremes, and monsoon behavior, with notable implications for India.
Timeline
8 Events
India may face harsher summer and weaker monsoon with El Niño
May 11, 2026
The article notes that El Niño events are usually associated with harsher summers and weaker monsoons in India.
El Niño could develop between May and July 2026; may be one of the strongest on record
May 11, 2026
Seasonal climate models suggest El Niño could develop between May and July 2026 and may become one of the strongest on record.
Global April 2026 air temperature high; third-highest on record
May 11, 2026
Global air temperatures in April 2026 reached 14.89°C, the third-highest April on record, about 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels; April 2024 remains the warmest on record at 15.03°C.
Warmest April on record for central equatorial Pacific to western US/Mexico region
May 11, 2026
C3S data show a broad stretch of waters from the central equatorial Pacific to the western coast of the US and Mexico recorded their warmest-ever April.
April 2026 global SST near-record high
May 11, 2026
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) data released last week show the global average sea surface temperature (SST) for April 2026 at 21°C, the second-highest for the month and just shy of the 21.04°C record set in April 2024.
Northwest India cooler with thunderstorms in May ahead of El Niño
May 2026
Ahead of El Niño establishing, temperatures over northwest India have largely been mild, interspersed with thunderstorm activity in May.
North Indian Ocean warms; Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal warmer-than-average
April 2026
Large parts of the North Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, have started recording warmer-than-average temperatures, per C3S data.
Arctic sea ice extent in April at second-lowest on record
April 2026
In the Arctic, sea ice extent was the second-lowest ever recorded for April and remained close to record lows for this time of year.