More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on

By 2034, pensioners are expected to make up about a fifth (20%) of the UK population.

The ONS projects that deaths will outnumber births in every year from 2026. The population is expected to reach about 71 million by 2034 and then peak in the 2050s before decreasing. Net migration is projected to add 2.2 million people to the population between 2024 and 2034, with post-Brexit immigration treated as a 'blip' rather than an ongoing trend. By 2034, pensioners are expected to make up about a fifth of the population, while the number of children is projected to fall by 1.6 million. Working-age people would grow by about 1.5 million, but not as quickly as the 1.8 million extra pensioners. The figures are projections, not guarantees, and depend on future births, deaths and migration. The analysis notes rising pressures on the NHS and pensions and cites expert calls for immigration reforms and sustained public investment to respond to an ageing population.

A House of Lords report published in December 2025 found that young people would be hardest hit by the ageing population and that current policy responses to ageing—such as pensions and healthcare—were not adequate on their own.

Over the 10 years after 2024, the population is projected to grow by about 1.7 million. Projected 10-year totals include 6.4 million births, 6.9 million deaths, 7.3 million long-term immigrants and 5.1 million long-term emigrants, with deaths expected to outnumber births by nearly half a million over the decade.

Net migration to the UK peaked near a million people in 2023 and has since fallen to just over 200,000 people.